Beginning of 2023 to be difficult for Polish economy: ING

16 Feb '23

2 min read

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Poland’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter last year fell by 2.4 per cent quarter on quarter (QoQ) after expanding by 1 per cent QoQ in the third, according to flash government estimates. The beginning of 2023 will be difficult, but Amsterdam-based ING Group expects 1 per cent economic growth this year, mainly to be driven by net exports.

The composition of GDP should support disinflation; however, price growth is still projected to remain high, ING noted.

The economic growth was choppy in 2022, with quarters of rising activity interspersed with quarters of decline.

On an annual basis, growth slowed to 2 per cent in Q4 2022 from 3.6 per cent year on year in the third.

The latest GDP data confirm a further weakening of the Polish economy, ING noted. The beginning of 2023 will be difficult. In Q1 this year, a decline in GDP on an annual basis may be witnessed.

The energy crisis in Europe is less acute than previously feared and energy commodity prices have fallen significantly. ING forecasts economic growth of 1 per cent in 2023.

ING expects price increases to be mainly pushed by costs rather than pulled by demand. It still expects consumer price growth in Poland in 2023 to be in double digits, with stubbornly high core inflation.

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