World 2010/11 cotton production is forecast at 114.3 millionbales, up 11 percent from the previous year, and reversing the output declinethat began three years ago. This expected rebound comes on an improving globaleconomic outlookthat is expected to ease credit conditionsand the continuingstrong demand for the fiber. Production is expected to rebound in most majorcotton-producing countries. Australia is forecast to produce 2.2 million balesin 2010/11, a 38-percent increase from a year earlier as weather conditions andwater availability improve. Brazil and China are forecast to increaseproduction, by 18 percent and 2 percent, to 6.8 million bales and 33 millionbales, respectively. Indias 2010/11 production is forecast at 25.0 millionbales, up 6 percent from the preceding year and the highest on record.Production in Pakistan and Uzbekistan is forecast at 10.5 million bales and 4.6million bales, up 6 percent and 12 percent, respectively, from a year earlier.The United States is forecast to produce 16.7 million bales, up 37 percent fromthe previous year.


Total area to be harvested in 2010/11 is forecast at 32.4million hectares, up 7 percent from the previous year. Area increases areexpected in most major cotton producing countries including Brazil, China, andthe United States. Cotton area in Brazil is forecast at 975,000 hectares, up 17percent from the previous year. China is expected to increase area in 2010/11by 2 percent to 5.4 million hectares. Australias 2010/11 area is forecast to riseby 25 percent to 250,000 hectares. Indias 2010/11 area is forecast to increase0.4 percent at 10.3 million hectares. The largest increase is expected in theUnited States, where harvested area is forecast at 4.0 million hectares, a31-percent gain.


World Cotton Trade to Continue Rebound in 2010/11


Global cotton trade in 2010/11 is forecast at 36.1 millionbales, a 2-percent increase from the preceding year and equivalent to one-thirdof global production in that year. Of the major importing countries, China,Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Pakistan are forecast to increase imports to 11.5million bales (up 6 percent), 4.25 million bales (up 6 percent), 2.2 millionbales (up 5 percent), and 1.9 million bales (up 12 percent), respectively.These import increases are partially offset by declines in other countries,such as Turkey and Russia. Turkey is expected to import 2.5 million bales, down26 percent from the previous year, while Russias cotton imports in 2010/11 areforecast to further decline 4 percent to 675,000 bales. In South Korea,Thailand, and Mexico, 2010/11 imports are forecast to remain unchanged from theprevious year at 1.0 million bales, 1.8 million bales, and 1.5 million bales,respectively.


Most of the 2010/11 global export supplies are expected tocome from Australia, Brazil, India, the United States, and Uzbekistan, which together are forecast to account for over 70 percent of global trade.Australias 2010/11 cotton exports are forecast at about 1.9 million bales, up4 percent from a year ago, while Brazils exports are forecast at 2.2 millionbales, a 10-percent increase from the previous year. The United States, theworlds leading cotton exporter, is forecast to increase exports 10 percent to13.5 million bales. Exports for India and Uzbekistan are forecast to decline 11percent and 5 percent to 5.7 million bales and 3.6 million bales, respectively,as sharply lower beginning stocks are reducing exportable supplies there.


Global Mill Use to Continue Increase in 2010/11


Worldcotton consumption in 2010/11 is forecast to rise about 2.5 percent from a yearago to 119.5 million bales, as the global economic situation improves. China,the worlds leading cotton mill user, is forecast to consume 49.0 millionbales, up 3 percent from a year ago (fig. 3). Mill use in India and Pakistan isforecast to increase 5 percent and 2 percent to 20.4 million bales and 11.7 million bales, respectively. Cotton consumption is expected to continue declining in the United States with 2010/11 mill use forecast at 3.3 million bales.