The world apparel market was worth US$ 345 bn in 2007. The market has grown at a rate of 8% during this decade. However, post quota the rate of growth has increased and for the last two years it has grown at a rate of 12%. There are two possibilities of growth from here on:
First, the high growth scenario with an average annual growth rate of 12% - In this case, the growth trajectory remains the same, at 12%. This could be because of the supply side push of low-cost apparel from China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and other emerging suppliers. Under this scenario, world apparel exports would be worth US$ 854 bn by 2015.
Second, a moderate growth scenario with an average annual growth rate of 8% - Moderation due to the recession in 2008 & 2009 as also the possibility of market saturation can result in growth of 8%. Under this scenario, world apparel exports would be worth US$ 640 bn by 2015.
Thirdly, a low growth scenario with an average annual growth rate of 6% - In this case, under this scenario, world apparel exports would be worth US$ 550 bn by 2015.
However, with the impact of the recession likely to stay till 2010 and maturing markets worldwide, the expected growth scenario is moderate, with 6% to 8% growth during the period 2009 to 2015.
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The report is published with due permission from Apparel Export Promotion Council (AEPC)
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