Fashion forecasting is the process of predicting trends well in advance of production to meet customer demands on time and maintain brand relevance. This is crucial due to the time required for design, fabric, trim, and product development, as well as distribution through appropriate channels. Fabric and yarn designers work 2-3 seasons ahead of product launches, with forecasts typically made 18 months to 2 years prior to product development, sales, and distribution. Therefore, fashion developers, buyers, and retailers require timely, accurate, reliable, and meaningful forecasts.

Fashion directions ensure products align with consumer needs, and accurate forecasting is essential in the competitive fashion market. Forecasters, designers, and service providers like Doneger Creative Services, Promostyl, ESP Trend Lab, Carlin Creative Trend Bureau, Here and There, Trend Union, and WGSN all contribute to industry forecasts. Colour service providers such as Pantone Inc., Standard Color of Textile Dictionnaire, International Color Authority, Color Marketing Group, Hue Point, and Color Portfolio Inc also play a role. Fashion magazines, social media, influencers, bloggers, and celebrities can influence a season’s fashion trends.

Trends indicate the direction of fashion and future consumer buying patterns, helping to analyse factors affecting purchasing decisions such as fabrics, colours, textures, prints, designs, silhouettes, price, and quality. Today, product accessibility, retail channel availability, delivery services, and customer experiences also impact consumer behaviour. Forecasters must identify the sources of change, trace evolution patterns, observe deviations, and guide designers towards the future.

Consumer behaviour can be influenced by social, cultural, ethical, or environmental shifts, and recognising these shifts aids in planning for the future. Processes and products must adapt to evolving consumer dynamics. Fashion forecasting has moved from analysing demographic data like age, gender, and income groups to understanding customer moods, behaviours, and buying patterns.

Design, functionality, and creativity of products and services undergo multiple transformations as consumer requirements shift. Fashion forecasting is not limited to the fashion and textile industry; it is also impacted by changes in other industries such as automobiles, medicine, food and beverages, literature, home furnishings, and interior design. A comprehensive analysis of changing patterns can reveal links to upcoming trends, helping fashion forecasters guide retail businesses and designers in successfully selling their brands.

The fashion forecasting process

Fashion forecasting involves an elaborate and lengthy process of research, as described below.

Market research – This involves studying market conditions; visiting different fashion shows, yarn and fabric shows, fairs and exhibitions; competitor mapping; market analysis; evaluating popular designer collections; surveying fashion publications, catalogues, and websites; observing street fashions; traveling to fashion capitals; scanning fashion media; and networking with fashion professionals to understand the trends in fashion.

Colour forecasting – This involves studying evolution in colours, silhouettes, textures, designs, prints and patterns, technological advancements, product functionality, aesthetics, and value addition, as these can stimulate sales. Customers are attracted by colours, which can play a significant role in making final choices while purchasing. Colour has different meanings in different societies, religious groups, occasions and seasons; therefore, the forecasters and designers need to carefully observe and use colour for specific purposes. Colours add a sense of newness to the product. Retailers can develop colour stories to sell their products in the stores.

Textile development – Newness in fabrics comes from introducing new fibres, yarns, and fabric structures through variation in patterns and prints and innovative finishing processes. New textiles may develop due to functional needs and the benefits they offer. A garment may serve several benefits, like an anti-crease or anti-bacterial finish, and incorporate better functionality for the wearer. Tencel, cork leather, sea-weeds fabric etc now provide sustainable clothing options. These technological changes may make the fabrics “in” or “out” of fashion.

Customer research / Consumer scan – This activity helps in identifying target markets and consumer cohorts. Building demographic and psychographic customer data through customer surveys through emails or telephone surveys, focus groups discussions, noting the lifestyle of the people, social changes, economic changes, impact of age groups, gender on fashion acceptance or rejections etc is also done as part of this activity. Customer research figures are essential in product development, brand marketing, and retailing decisions. Socio-cultural changes may affect the timing of the launch of a new fashion product. Therefore, the forecast should be agile enough to accommodate regional diversities, cultural cues, and social changes to reach the customers more effectively.

Sales research – This includes researching historical sales data, declining or rising sales data, the patterns of sales, product acceptability and changes, competitors’ sales patterns, and product gap analysis. This can help retailers manage stock-out or markdown situations more effectively. The fashion apparel business is highly volatile due to the demand for newness, high seasonality, and shorter lifetimes of the products. In such situations, forecasts become increasingly inaccurate, resulting in losses from frequent markdowns and stock-outs.

The final stage – The look of a season is based on several factors as discussed above. The trends that are identified help to develop products closer to the requirements of the customers.

Purpose of a forecast

• To know what is the seasonal preference or time relevance of a product

• To identify opportunities for research and development for differentiation or competition

• To identify the key characteristics of products where possible interventions can be made

• To identify the product categories in which customers are looking forward for developments and interventions

• To identify the gaps in products and services available in the market

• To look forward to solving the problems of the customers

• To identify core items, best sellers, and non-performers to be able to make future decisions

• To look for opportunities for innovation.

Steps in product development using fashion forecasts

• Choose a season

• Choose a product category

• Choose the product collection

• Choose a concept/theme for developing the products

• Create an inspiration board/ mood board

• Create a colour board according to colour forecasts for the season

• Create a fabric swatch board according to textile fabrics forecast

• Create a trims board

• Create design sketches and patterns

• Develop spec sheets and prototypes for the collection

• Create tech packs

• Estimate costing and prepare a cost sheet

• Identify manufacturers

• Set production timelines

• Regular review of the production process and quality

• Develop credit and term agreements

• Completing order, finishing and packaging

• Distribution and sales

The drivers of fashion change

Social and cultural changes are significant determinants of emerging fashions. However, they are affected by the other drivers of change, including the globalisation of world markets and the developing communication channels. These developed means of communication are able to transmit information at a faster rate and bring customers across the globe closer to each other leading to cross-cultural and societal influences over fashion products.

Seasonality: Fashion is seasonal and thus short-lived in nature. A long-term fashion is not affected by season change but remains in fashion due to its design acceptability by the customers for a very long period of time. Fashion is divided into four seasons namely Spring/Summer, Fall/Winter, Resort and Pre-Fall. Spring/Summer and Fall/Winter are the two major seasons. Spring/Summer starts in January and extends up to June, and Fall/Winter is from July to December. When a new season begins, products meant for the prior season are generally put on discounted sale to maximise sales.

Fashion cycle: Every product goes through a lifecycle pattern known as the ‘product lifecycle’. At the initial stage of introduction, the product is accepted by a few people who would influence the trend, and gradually, with time, the product may find greater acceptability in the market. This is the stage of mass acceptance and popularity. Later, as consumer preferences change and consumers lose interest in the existing product, sales tend to decline. As consumers look forward to change, they reject the existing products or styles, creating a need for new product development. Thus, fashion changes with time. Thus, fashion cycle is a function of sales with respect to time.

Theories of fashion adoption: These theories show how fashion percolates through various socio-economic strata of the society. There are three theories of fashion adoption: trickle-down, trickle-across, and trickle-up. The trickle-down theory assumes that fashion starts with the affluent class and percolates down the socio-economic ladder as people from the lower strata try to emulate the upper classes. It is the oldest theory of fashion adoption. The trickle-across theory assumes that fashion moves across socio-economic levels relatively rapidly due to mass communication and the availability of similar designs across different market segments simultaneously. The trickle-up theory is based on movement of fashion progressively up from the bottom of the social ladder until the fashion is accepted by the wealthier consumers. Street styles or youth fashion fall under this category.

Influence of social media and technology: Social media has become a broader platform for easy access by consumers and an effective marketing tool for brands and retailers. New fashion ideas can be generated quite easily by looking at the social media fashion bloggers and influencers, who are getting much attention online. The latest technology, like AI, can easily track customer feedback to know the emerging possibilities.

Scope of forecasting

Forecasting is not only limited to fashion product forecasting but is used in almost every area of business today. The important areas of forecasting in an organisation are:

1. Economic development and economic conditions of the country and the world affect predictions relating to GDP, currency strength, industrial expansion, job market, balance of payments, economic growth etc.

2. Technological forecasts help predict the new technological developments that may change an organisation’s operations to improve performance.

3. Competition forecasts help to predict the market dynamics and competitors’ strategies, new entrants in the market and their impact, access to resources, and market expansion strategies.

4. Social forecasts predict the social changes and how that affect consumer tastes, demands, and attitudes.

5. Political, legal, and environmental forecasts are predictions about new laws, political events, labour laws, environmental laws etc. These are all critical areas that impact the products’ procurement, production, marketing, and sales.

As consumer demands are rising and markets are becoming volatile each day, it is essential to develop accurate forecasts responsibly to deliver the best solutions to consumers while maximising profits for the organisation. Forecasting is an activity integrating several aspects that can impact a business. Fashion forecasting is challenging because it requires predicting what the customer would like rather than what already exists. A thorough analysis may help achieve accuracy in this ever-evolving, highly dynamic, and uncertain scenario.