US’ consumers are expected to follow their own schedules for back-to-school shopping in 2024, rather than aligning with early retail promotions, according to Circana’s Omnibus survey. About 60 per cent of K-12 parents reported making their back-to-school footwear purchases close to the start of school. Last year, this behaviour was evident as footwear sales peaked during the first two weeks of August, just ahead of the peak school start weeks, despite early marketing efforts by brands and retailers. Assuming similar school start dates in 2024, this pattern is expected to repeat.

However, the addition of a 53rd week in the retail calendar, introduced back in January, will shift one of these peak weeks into July and the second retail quarter. This shift could impact sales patterns and strategies for retailers.

Footwear sales for kids and teens are expected to outperform the adult market, driven by back-to-school needs. Traditionally, back-to-school season was a time to stock up on fall essentials for the entire family, but now it focuses more on immediate needs for children starting school. Weather fluctuations and tighter budgets are causing consumers to prioritise current necessities over buying ahead of the season, as per the survey.

Throughout the year, parents have been prioritising footwear purchases for their children. In the 12 months ending April 2024, year-over-year sales of footwear for kids and teens under 18 grew by 7 per cent, while sales for adults declined by 3 per cent, according to Circana’s Consumer Tracking data. Most of the growth came from sales for teens, who primarily wear adult shoe sizes. This trend is crucial for brands and retailers to consider when planning their back-to-school merchandise and marketing strategies.

Promotional activity for footwear is expected to return to typical levels. Last year, the percentage of footwear units sold on promotion from June through August reverted to pre-pandemic 2019 levels, following two years of volatility. A dip in promotions occurred in 2021 when supply was low and demand high, followed by a sharp increase in 2023 when supply was plentiful but demand slower.

Despite consumers’ focus on value, discounts may not drive demand. Footwear promotional effectiveness declined in Q1 2024, according to Circana’s Price and Promotion Trends data. Circana’s Future of Footwear study found that only one-third of consumers cited promotions and discounts as influential factors in their footwear purchases for kids and teens, ranking behind quality, price, and child or teen requests.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DP)