The increase reflects the substantial growth in mill use in Asian countries, particularly Vietnam and Bangladesh, which source virtually all their cotton from imports to support their growing domestic textiles sector, the report, released recently by the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, said.

Moreover, the stagnant production growth rate in China is anticipated to drive an increase in lint imports over the next decade to fulfil the demand of local mills and replenish state reserves.

By 2033, raw cotton imports are projected to increase by 0.7 per cent p.a., reaching 2.8 Mt, which remains well below the over-3-per cent growth projected in Vietnam and Bangladesh, the report said.

The United States will remain the world’s largest exporter throughout the outlook period. Exports from that country have stabilised in recent years, recovering from the lows in 2015. It is projected that its share of world cotton trade will reach 31 per cent in 2033 (around 3.9 Mt). Despite the major changes in the Chinese textile industry, the United States remains its main trade partner.

Brazilian cotton exports are expected to grow strongly over the next decade, consolidating the country’s position as the second largest exporter by 2033, with Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole following behind. The region accounts for around 16 per cent of global cotton exports.

Sub-Saharan African exports are projected to continue growing at around 0.7 per cent p.a. in the coming decade, with South and Southeast Asia being the major export destinations.

However, the textile and apparel industry is expanding in countries such as Ethiopia, where the textile and clothing sector primarily relies on cotton. In the long run, the increase in mill use may affect the net export status of Sub-Saharan Africa, the report noted.

International cotton prices in real terms are projected to trend slightly downward in the medium term. Prices will continue to be influenced by competition from man-made fibres along with changes in consumers preferences.

From the early 1970s, when polyester became price-competitive, cotton prices tended to follow polyester prices. For example, cotton prices were only 6 per cent above polyester staple fibre prices between 1972 and 2009.

Since 2010, however, cotton prices have been on average around 70 per cent above the polyester price, in nominal terms. It is assumed that the relative price competitiveness between these two types of fibre will not change drastically over the projection period, the report added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)