Adobe forecasts record $240.8 bn US holiday season online sales

In the 2023 shopping season, US shoppers spent $221.8 billion online—a 4.9-per cent growth YoY.

Shopping on mobile devices is expected to contribute a record $128.1 billion and growing by 12.8 per cent YoY this shopping season, representing a 53.2-per cent share of online spend (compared to desktop shopping).

Cyber Week—the five-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday—is expected to drive $40.6 billion in online spend—up by 7 per cent YoY and representing 16.9 per cent of the overall holiday season.

Based on Adobe Analytics data, the company expects Cyber Monday will remain the season’s and year’s biggest shopping day, driving a record $13.2 billion in spend—up by 6.1 per cent YoY.

Black Friday ($10.8 billion, up 9.9 per cent YoY) and Thanksgiving Day ($6.1 billion, up 8.7 per cent YoY) are both expected to outpace Cyber Monday in growth YoY, as consumers embrace earlier deals promoted by US retailers.

In a survey of 5,000 US consumers, 71 per cent said they plan to shop online on Black Friday, with 70 per cent saying they proactively check for deals during Cyber Week.

Adobe anticipates major discounts this season—up to 30 per cent off listed prices—as retailers compete for consumer dollars. These levels are on par with the 2023 season.

Of the 18 categories tracked by Adobe, discounts for apparel are expected at 23 per cent and for furniture at 19 per cent.

This year, Adobe’s data showed that for every 1-per cent decrease in price during promotional events (Prime Day, President’s Day, Memorial Day and Labour Day), demand increased by 1.025 per cent compared to the year prior. This drove an incremental $305 million in online spend.

For the upcoming holiday season, Adobe expects the strong consumer response to discounts will contribute an incremental $2 billion to $3 billion in online spend—a figure factored into the record $240.8-billion spend projected for e-commerce.

Across major marketing channels, paid search has remained the top driver of retail sales (28 per cent share of online revenue from January 1 to September 3, 2024) and is expected to grow by 1 per cent to 3 per cent during the holiday season.

The fastest growth is set to come from affiliates and partners (17.2 per cent share)—which includes social media influencers—at 7-10 per cent. This channel is also expected to outpace retailer traffic from social media overall (nearly 5 per cent share), where growth is at 4-7 per cent.

In 2024, Adobe’s data showed that influencers are converting shoppers (individuals making a purchase after seeing influencer content) 10 times more than social media overall. This is expected to hold strong during the holiday season. In Adobe’s survey, 37 per cent of GenZ respondents have purchased something based on an influencer’s recommendation.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)