E-com rise to halt net zero emissions targets in UK: Colliers report

The report, titled 'Clicks & Consequences—accommodating the rise of e-commerce', was conducted by Walter Boettcher, head of research and economics at Colliers.

“With transport accounting for approximately 30 per cent of all territorial carbon dioxide emissions in the UK in 2020, it is clear this needs to be a focus area if the UK is to meet its net zero target,” Boettcher points out.

The report explains the extra vehicles needed to meet demand by 2025 could take up one lane of the motorway from London to Aberdeen in Scotland bringing the UK’s road network to a halt by the end of this decade, unless drastic action is taken.

Similarly, an extra 54.5 million square feet of industrial logistics space, including warehouses will also be needed to satisfy existing shortfall and meet anticipated growth by 2025 if the levels of e-commerce continue, he says.

“The distribution model in place for the growing volume of e-commerce is not without its problems. One being that it has a substantial environmental footprint that may equal, if not exceed, that of traditional ‘bricks and mortar’ retailing. Furthermore, the anticipated large-scale repurposing of ‘bricks and mortar’ retail assets into other uses could unwittingly exacerbate the problem and act to undermine the path to net zero,” Boettcher says.

“Much attention is focused on ‘last mile delivery’ solutions, but the real existential questions have more to do with the sustainability of bulk transport from port quays to inland warehouses and on to urban agglomeration hubs,” he says.

In 2010, UK retail sales amounted to GBP 325 billion, rising to GBP 438 billion in 2020 and are expected to reach GBP 651 billion by 2030, according to Oxford Economics forecasts.

The e-commerce share of total retail sales has risen from 7.3 per cent in 2010 to 19.2 per cent in 2019 before reaching an annual pandemic fuelled peak of 27.9 per cent in 2020. This share is expected to fall back to 25 per cent in 2021, but will resume its long-term climb to 27 per cent by 2025 and finding greater stability at around 35 per cent by 2030 according to Colliers’ forecasts.

Boettcher says this is an opportunity to craft a new sustainable footprint for UK commerce and now is the time to take action if the current trajectory of consumer demand is to be met.

However, it will require the UK government and devolved administrations to take active leadership roles, including co-ordination and creation of regulatory frameworks and investment incentives, he adds.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)