Record production growth to control US gas prices in 2023, 2024: EIA

13 Jan '23

2 min read

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Anticipating growing US natural gas production that will top prior highs, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) scaled back its near-term natural gas price forecasts, expecting Henry Hub spot prices will average $4.90/MMBtu in 2023, down from $6.42/MMBtu in 2022. In its January Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA lowered its first quarter 2023 forecast for such prices by $1.18 to $4.99/MMBtu.

The Q2 2023 forecast also fell 25 cents from the previous month's estimates to $4.75/MMBtu.

"The natural gas market is particularly uncertain, but we expect that US natural gas production will establish new record highs in both 2023 and 2024, leading to lower domestic prices," said EIA administrator Joe DeCarolis, in a statement.

The EIA boosted its total natural gas marketed production forecast for 2023 by 2.36 Bcf/d to 109.11 Bcf/d on average and estimated production will grow further to average 111.24 Bcf/d in 2024.

For the first half of 2023, the agency lifted the Q1 production estimate by 980 MMcf/d to 109.58 Bcf/d, and the Q2 forecast by 340 MMcf/d to 108.6 MMcf/d.

"Increases in US natural gas production, relatively flat LNG exports, and declining domestic consumption in the electric power and industrial sectors will limit upward pressure on prices in 2023," according to the report.

Henry Hub natural gas prices were forecast to average $4.90/MMBtu for 2023 and $4.80/MMBtu in 2024, down from the previous month's estimates of $5.43/MMBtu in 2023.

In 2024, even as new LNG export facilities are slated to come online, the agency is expecting robust production will keep gas prices "relatively flat—with the possibility of lower prices".

As for the power sector, EIA said that after a 3 per cent rise in total US electricity consumption in 2022, US power use will fall by 1 per cent in 2023, and grow by just over 1 per cent in 2024. Softer demand reflects expectations of a milder summer in 2023, and trends in housing starts are seen resuming growth in 2024.

Coal-fired generation is expected to continue its slump, falling from 20 per cent of the US generating mix in 2022 to 18 per cent in 2023 and 17 per cent in 2024. Renewables, by contrast, will continue their ascent, according to the outlook, reaching 24 per cent of the mix in 2023 and 26 per cent in 2024, while gas declines to 38 per cent in 2023 and 37 per cent in 2024.

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