Furthermore, the Expectations Index, which measures consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labour market conditions, fell to 68.1 from 74. The Expectations Index has remained below 80, the level associated with a recession within the next year, every month since February 2022, except for a brief uptick in December 2022.

While consumers' assessment of current business conditions improved slightly, with 18.8 per cent of consumers saying that business conditions were ‘good’ (the same as last month) and 18.1 per cent saying that they were ‘bad’ (down from 19.3 per cent last month), their appraisal of the labour market improved only slightly. 48.4 per cent of consumers said jobs were ‘plentiful,’ up slightly from 47.9 per cent last month, while 11.1 per cent of consumers said jobs were ‘hard to get,’ down slightly from 11.4 per cent last month, according to the Consumer Confidence Survey.

Looking ahead, consumers became more pessimistic about the short-term outlook for business conditions in April. About 13.5 per cent of consumers expect business conditions to improve, down from 16.4 per cent the previous month, and 21.5 per cent expect business conditions to worsen, up from 19.2 per cent last month. Consumers' assessment of the short-term labour market outlook was also less positive, with 12.5 per cent of consumers expecting more jobs to be available (down from 15.5 per cent last month) and 21.0 per cent anticipating fewer jobs (up slightly from 20.5 per cent last month).

However, consumers' short-term income prospects were somewhat more favourable, with 15.7 per cent of consumers expecting their incomes to increase, down slightly from 16.2 per cent last month, and 11.6 per cent expecting their incomes to decrease, down from 13.8 per cent last month.

“While consumers’ relatively favourable assessment of the current business environment improved somewhat in April, their expectations fell and remain below the level which often signals a recession looming in the short-term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director, economics, at The Conference Board. “Consumers became more pessimistic about the outlook for both business conditions and labour markets. Compared to last month, fewer households expect business conditions to improve and more expect worsening of conditions in the next six months. They also expect fewer jobs to be available over the short term. April’s decline in consumer confidence reflects particular deterioration in expectations for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over.”

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DP)