Thus, the market is firmly in equilibrium, with rates following normal seasonal patterns, it said in an insights piece.

Demand continues to decline from May highs and capacity remains resilient despite challenging market conditions.

Import forecasts still look strong, with over two million TEUs expected each month till October 2024—the highest levels since 2022.

Industrial production, consumer spending and other key economic indicators remain steady and have yet to significantly affect freight demand, the Austin, Texas-based company noted.

The overall freight volume outlook remains positive. The National Retail Federation (NRF) still expects over two million TEUs monthly until November. US ports handled 2.08 million TEUs in May, an increase of 7.7 per cent year on year (YoY) and 3 per cent month on month.

The NRF’s forecast also calls for 4.43 million TEUs to move through US ports in July and August, which would be an 18.4-per cent YoY increase.

Increased imports indicate that retailers are restocking inventories in anticipation of strong holiday consumer demand. While this data is encouraging, Arrive Logistics cautioned that retail orders are not always a true indicator of future retail spending.

If retail executives order more, it could create inventory stockpiles similar to those of the post-COVID era, which would have a deflationary impact on the freight market, it noted.

Descartes’ June import data deviated slightly from the NRF’s projections, showing a 2-per cent decrease from May. However, volumes were still up by over 10 per cent YoY, indicating a strong import market.

Chinese import volumes were up by 13.8 per cent YoY, which is unsurprising as retailers restock inventories and shippers work to import goods before tariffs increase starting in August.

This trend might also explain why West Coast ports handled more volume than East and Gulf Coast ports for the first time since January 2024.

The US freight capacity market continues to show resilience amid challenging conditions. Net revocations have slowed, and new market entrants have increased for the second consecutive quarter.

This trend amid declining carrier exits has slowed the carrier attrition rate. Current conditions reflect the equilibrium market and may remain the same in the near term.

Overall capacity levels remain elevated despite consistent net carrier population declines since late 2022, Arrive Logistics added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)