The decline is largely attributed to expected lower outputs in key producing countries, China and India, due to lower plantings and crop yields, affected by unfavourable weather conditions, , the report, released recently by the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, said.

A sharp decline in production is also forecast in the United States, where prolonged dry weather conditions are anticipated to curb yields.

By contrast, cotton production is expected to increase in Brazil, with the country currently forecast to overtake the United States as the third world’s largest cotton producer.

A strong rebound is anticipated in Pakistan and also in West African countries after the drop in the 2022-23 season, caused mainly by a significant Jassids infestation.

The slowdown in the global economy is seen to affect global demand for cotton-related products. The year-on-year (YoY) increase is mainly driven by forecasts of higher cotton use in Pakistan, Turkiye and Vietnam.

By contrast, in the world’s largest cotton-spinning countries, mill use is projected at the 2022-23 level in China, while in India, a relatively small decrease is anticipated.

International cotton prices have generally declined since the start of the season in August 2023, pressured downwards by concerns over weak global demand for textiles and clothing, due to the slowdown in global growth.

In 2023, cotton prices averaged 27 per cent below their multi-year high levels in 2022, affecting planting decisions in key producing countries, including in India and the United States, the report noted.

World trade of raw cotton is projected to rise by around 10 per cent the 2023-24 season compared to the previous season.

On the supply side, exports from Brazil are expected to rebound significantly in line with the bumper crop expected and to more than offset a decline in the United States, the worlds’ larger exporter. A rebound in exports is also forecast from West African countries.

On the demand side, the forecast of higher purchases by China, mainly based on an expected decline in domestic production, along with increased imports from Bangladesh and Vietnam are expected to drive the overall increase in global imports in the current season, the report added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)