Brexit support in UK lowest since referendum: UK in a Changing Europe

The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill would allow the UK government to unilaterally suspend key elements of the Withdrawal Agreement, which in turn would be likely to provoke a strong political reaction from the European Union (EU), potentially undermining the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), it says.

The framework for the United Kingdom’s Trade ties with the EU was set by the Withdrawal Agreement and TCA. The TCA provides for tariff-free trade for goods but little in the way of regulatory alignment, and only very limited arrangements for trade in services.

The UK in a Changing Europe initiative aims at improving access to research on the relationship between the United Kingdom and the EU. It is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council and is based at King's College London.

Brexit’s impact on the UK economy has been already significant. While the most important factors behind current economic problems in the United Kingdom and the EU—especially the rise in energy prices—are global, the comparative weakness of both UK trade and investment over the past few years is at least in part the result of Brexit, notes the report, titled ‘Where next? The future of the UK-EU relationship’.

The post-Brexit UK-EU relationship is far from either settled or stable, it says. The immediate challenge is resolving the issues surrounding the Northern Ireland Protocol but even if this is achieved, other deadlines and decisions are looming, relating to, for example, data exchange, electric cars and fish.

“…There appears to be little political space on either side of the Channel for a major reconsideration of the relationship or renegotiation of the TCA in the short term. While public opinion is shifting, politics within the UK do not seem to speak in favour of a renegotiation, and in a low-trust environment, there is likely to be little appetite in the EU to renegotiate a deal whose current asymmetries largely benefit EU exporters,” the report says.

Changes to the relationship are likely to be slow and incremental in the immediate future. Nevertheless, there remain several areas, short of a full-scale renegotiation of the TCA, where the relationship could be built upon, including UK participation in the Horizon Europe programme, deeper cooperation on energy security and perhaps integration of the UK and EU emissions trading schemes to avoid new barriers to trade once the EU introduces its carbon border tax.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)