In May 2024, the leading economic index (LEI) for China experienced a decline of 0.5 per cent, reaching a value of 150, according to The Conference Board (TCB). This followed a downwardly revised decline of 0.3 per cent in April. Over the six-month period ending in May 2024, the LEI dropped by 1.7 per cent, a slightly smaller decrease compared to the 1.9 per cent contraction observed in the previous six-month period.

In contrast, the coincident economic index (CEI) for China showed improvement in May 2024, increasing by 1.2 per cent to 146.7. This uptick followed a downwardly revised decline of 1 per cent in April. Despite this improvement, the CEI grew by only 1.0 per cent during the six-month period from November 2023 to May 2024, a significant slowdown from the 4.4 per cent growth rate recorded over the previous six months.

“The LEI for China declined again in May, following the downward trend that started in March 2022,” said Ian Hu, economic research associate, at The Conference Board. “As in recent months, depressed consumer expectations weighed heavily on the Index. The 5000 Industrial Enterprises profitability survey, the Logistics Prosperity Index, and the PMI for manufacturing also fuelled the decline. The six- and twelve-month growth rates remain weak, suggesting sluggish growth momentum and recession risks ahead. However, economic activity is expected to be supported by increasing public stimulus in the second half of year. Overall, The Conference Board forecasts annual real GDP growth at 5 per cent in 2024 after 5.2 per cent in 2023.”

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DP)