China's leading economic index falls 0.2% in Mar: The Conference Board

As a result, the LEI declined by 1.3 per cent during the six-month period ending March 2024, a smaller decrease than the contraction of 2.1 per cent over the previous six-month period.

The US think tank’s coincident economic index (CEI) for the country also dropped significantly by 1.7 per cent in March to 146.4, more than reversing a 0.7 per cent increase in February.

The CEI grew by 1.6 per cent between September 2023 and March 2024, a faster pace than the 0.4 per cent growth rate over the previous six months period.

The LEI provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term, while the CEI offers an indication of the current state of the economy.

“Depressed consumer expectations continue to push the LEI down….Additionally, the semi-annual and annual changes to the LEI all remain negative, suggesting that growth momentum may still face challenges in the near future,” said Ian Hu, economic research associate at the think tank.

“Despite relatively strong growth in the first quarter, with GDP [gross domestic product] growing at 5.2 per cent annualised, weak consumer confidence and persistent issues in the real estate sector continue to weigh on the economy. The Conference Board projects annual real GDP growth [for China] at 4.6 per cent in 2024,” he added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)