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Economy grows at slight to modest pace in most districts: US Fed

18 Jul '24
2 min read
Economy grows at slight to modest pace in most districts: US Fed
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Insights

  • The US economy grew at a slight to modest pace in most Federal Reserve (Fed) districts heading into Q3 2024, with seven districts reporting some level of rise in activity and five noting flat or declining activity, the Fed said in its Beige Book.
  • Wages continued to grow at a modest to moderate pace in most districts and Employment rose at a slight pace.
The US economy grew at a slight to modest pace in most Federal Reserve (Fed) districts heading into the third quarter (Q3) this year, with seven districts reporting some level of increase in activity and five noting flat or declining activity—three more than in the prior reporting period, the Fed said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts.

Wages continued to grow at a modest to moderate pace in most districts, while prices were generally reported to have risen modestly.

Household spending was little changed this period according to most district banks.

Districts reported widely disparate trends in manufacturing activity ranging from brisk downturn to moderate growth, the Beige Book said.

Retail restocking spurred slight growth in transportation activity. Meanwhile, tight capacity in ocean shipping led to a surge in spot rates.

Expectations for the future of the economy were for slower growth over the next six months due to uncertainty around the upcoming election, domestic policy, geopolitical conflict and inflation, it observed.

Employment rose at a slight pace, with most districts reporting employment was either flat or up slightly, while a few districts reported modest employment growth.

Several Fed districts reported declines in employment in the manufacturing sector due to slowdowns in new orders. Skilled-worker availability remained a challenge across all aistricts; however, several districts reported some improvement in labour supply conditions.

Additionally, labour turnover was lower, which reduced demand to find new workers.

Contacts in several districts expect to be more selective on who they hire and not backfill all open positions. Wages grew at a modest to moderate pace in most districts. However, several Districts reported some slowing of wage growth due to increased worker availability and less competition for workers.

Prices increased at a modest pace overall, with a couple districts noting only slight increases.

While consumer spending was generally reported as showing little to no change almost every district mentioned retailers discounting items or price-sensitive consumers only purchasing essentials, trading down in quality, buying fewer items, or shopping around for the best deals.

Most districts noted that input costs were beginning to stabilise.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)

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