The US think tank’s coincident economic index (CEI) for the country increased by 0.1 per cent to 111 in February, offsetting the 0.1-per cent decline in January. The CEI grew by 0.2 per cent between August 2023 and February 2024, a continuation of the 0.2 per cent gain over the previous six-month period.

The LEI provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term, whereas the CEI offers an indication of the current state of the economy.

“February’s decline in the LEI was driven by negative contributions from the yield spread, building permits, and unemployment claims. Moreover, the declining six-month growth trajectory of the France LEI, coupled with more widespread weakness among the components triggered the recession signal in February,” said Allen Li, associate economist at the think tank.

“The Conference Board currently expects real GDP [gross domestic product] growth for France to remain weak in the first half of 2024 and rebound in the second half of year as the ECB [European Central Bank] starts cutting interest rates. Still, annual real GDP growth would only reach 0.7 per cent in 2024 after 0.9 per cent in 2023,” he added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)