In 2021, the value of global trade in goods and services is expected to increase by about US$ 5.2 trillion relative to 2020, and by about $2.8 trillion relative to 2019, the equivalent of an increase of about 23 per cent and 11 per cent respectively.

Although global trade is stabilising, quarter-over-quarter trade growth was still positive in the third quarter (Q3). The value of global trade in goods and services added about 1 per cent to the already high level of the previous quarter.

Global trade growth was about 24 per cent in Q3 on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, with an increase of about 13 per cent relative to Q3 2019.

Valued at about $5.6 trillion, the global trade in goods set a new all-time record in Q3 2021. Trade in services stood at about $ 1.5 trillion. The quarter-over-quarter growth of trade in goods was about 0.7 per cent, while that of services was about 2.5 per cent.

On a YoY basis, the trade growth rate for goods remains substantially higher than for services (22 per cent versus 6 per cent). Both the trend of a slower growth for the trade in goods, as well as a more positive trend for services, will probably continue in Q4.

Trade in goods is expected to remain constant at about $5.6 trillion in Q4 2021, while the trade in services will likely continue to slowly recover. Trade in goods is projected to reach a record level of $22 trillion in 2021. Trade in services should be valued about $6 trillion in 2021, still slightly below its pre-pandemic level, UNCTAD said in its report.

However, the forecast for 2022 remains very uncertain due to several factors, including slowing economic recovery, disruptions of logistic networks and increases in shipping costs, global semiconductor shortage, geopolitical factors and the regionalisation of trade flows, and governmental policies affecting international trade.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)