Growth strong in APAC in 2024-25, may slow in China, India in 2025

The outlook for the region next year is good, even though economic growth in China and India will likely slow over the coming year, a report authored by Steven Cochrane, chief Asia-Pacific (APAC) economist at the company, said.

“Growth will accelerate in Southeast Asia, supported by trade, investment, consumption, generally stimulative fiscal policy, and, by early next year, easing monetary policy,” Cochrane noted.

Southeast Asia, particularly Malaysia and Vietnam, is benefiting from robust investment spending from local and international sources, he noted.

Moody’s Analytics has maintained its gross domestic product growth projection for the Philippines at 5.9 per cent this year, slightly below the low end of the government’s 6-7-per cent target.

The growth forecast for the Philippines this year is the third highest in the region, after India (6.8 per cent) and Vietnam (6.4 per cent). That is followed by Indonesia (5.2 per cent), Malaysia (5.1 per cent) and China (4.8 per cent).

Moody’s also kept its 6 per cent forecast for 2025 for the Philippines, which is also below the government’s target range of 6.5-7.5 per cent, but is still the third fastest growth in the region.

“The Philippines and Indonesia will not lag far behind Vietnam, but their economies are not as closely tied to the global economy. An aggressive push by both countries to improve their infrastructure will support high rates of growth,” Cochrane said.

Geopolitical risks also add uncertainty to the outlook amid conflicts over the disputed West Philippine Sea and the current conflict in the Middle East. The outcome of the US November election will also impact the region, media outlets in the Philippines reported.

The Philippine economy grew by 6.3 per cent in the second quarter. This was faster than the 4.3-per cent expansion in the second quarter of last year and the revised 5.8-per cent growth in the first quarter this year. Growth in the first half of the year stood at an average of 6 per cent.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)