In its recent estimate, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has projected India’s cotton production at 344 lakhs in the current marketing year that began on October 1. As per state-wise estimate, the production may improve from 76.30 lakh bales to 91 lakh bales in Gujarat. Maharashtra’s output may increase from 75 lakh bales to 84.50 lakh bales. The production in Central zone (including Madhya Pradesh where production will be stable at 20 lakh bales) will increase to 195.50 lakh bales from 171.30 lakh bales of last season.

However, north India’s cotton production may remain stagnant at 50 lakh bales. State-wise analysis shows that the production may decrease from 8.50 lakh bales to 5 lakh bales in Punjab. But higher production in upper and lower Rajasthan will offset the deficiency. Earlier, Bathinda based Indian Cotton Association Limited (ICAL) had lowered north India’s cotton projection from 58 lakh bales to 51 lakh bales due to poor growth of cotton plant. Its latest production projection is little higher that the production of last year. ICAL had estimated last season’s production at 48 lakh bales.

However, there should be no surprise if India’s cotton production declines further because of the recent rains, which may disrupt crop growth. Even if the production is low, it may not support price as the demand scenario is not so good. CAI has increased domestic consumption projection from 318 lakh bales to 320 lakh bales. However, sluggish demand in yarn market and slower exports does not reflect positivity.

Moreover, indications of recession in global economy is dampening sentiments in the textile sector. Recently, the US department of agriculture (USDA) said that global cotton consumption may reduce to 115.6 million 480-pound bales. Global production is down slightly to 118.1 million bales, but this change is more than offset by larger beginning stocks.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)