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HSBC ups Vietnam's 2024 GDP forecast to 7%, retains 2025's at 6.5%

15 Oct '24
2 min read
HSBC ups Vietnam's 2024 GDP forecast to 7%, retains 2025's at 6.5%
Pic: Adobe Stock

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  • HSBC has revised up its 2024 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 7 per cent from 6.5 per cent after the country recorded stronger-than-expected growth in Q3 2024 despite the devastation left by Typhoon Yagi.
  • It kept its 2025 forecast unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
  • The Q3 2024 GDP growth was 7.4 per cent YoY.
  • The outperformance was led by manufacturing, which grew at 11.4 per cent YoY.
HSBC has revised up its 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for Vietnam to 7 per cent from 6.5 per cent after the country recorded stronger-than-expected growth in the third quarter (Q3) this year despite the devastation left by Typhoon Yagi.

It kept its 2025 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 6.5 per cent.

The Q3 2024 GDP growth was 7.4 per cent year on year (YoY), beating HSBC and general expectations of 6.2 per cent and 6.1 per cent respectively, it said.

Vietnam is clearly back as the growth star in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, the bank said in its update ‘Vietnam at a glance: In its own league’.

The outperformance was led by manufacturing, which grew at 11.4 per cent YoY, HSBC said. Exports increased by 15.3 per cent YoY in Q3.

The recovery, initially seen in the electronics sector, showed signs of expanding, with textiles and footwear exports rising 16.7 per cent YoY in Q3.

The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell sharply into the contractionary territory in September, indicating a deterioration from the previous month as businesses assessed damages to production, a domestic news agency reported citing the HSBC document.

Vietnam continued to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) as fundamental prospects remain positive. Although growth in newly registered FDI moderated in Q3 2024, sectors apart from manufacturing saw increases in investment.

HSBC noted that capital flows into manufacturing are likely to remain resilient in the future as President To Lam's visit to the United States has attracted interest from several companies.

Inflation has shown a notable decline in recent months, and is expected to remain below the central bank’s target ceiling of 4.5 per cent.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)

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