India's GDP expected to grow by over 9.5% in FY22: SBI

The real GDP growth may be near to 10 per cent, the research report said.

The economy grew at 8.4 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) recently. The growth in the April-June quarter of this fiscal stood at 20.1 per cent.

RBI had retained its projection for real GDP growth at 9.5 per cent for 2021-22 in October's monetary policy review—7.9 per cent in Q2; 6.8 per cent in Q3; and 6.1 per cent in Q4.

The report said the GDP grew by 8.4 per cent in Q2 of this fiscal on the back of double-digit growth in mining and quarrying, public administration, defence and other services. The real gross value added (GVA) increased by 8.5 per cent, a tad higher than the GDP growth.

In the first half (H1) of the last fiscal, the country exhibited a real GDP loss of ₹11.4 lakh crore (on a year-on-year basis) due to complete lockdown in April-May and partial lockdown in June-September, the report said. The situation has improved in FY22, and in H1 FY22 the real gain was around ₹8.2 lakh crore.

This indicates that real loss of ₹3.2 lakh crore still needs to be recouped to reach the pre-pandemic level, the report said.

Overall, the economy is still operating at 95.6 per cent of the pre-pandemic level (with trade, hotels, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting still at 80 per cent) and should take one more quarter to recoup the losses, the report added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)