For FY24, RBI has projected India’s GDP growth rate at 6.4 per cent with Q1 at 7.8 per cent; Q2 at 6.2 per cent; Q3 at 6 per cent; and Q4 at 5.8 per cent.

The Indian economy is poised to benefit from stronger prospects for agricultural and allied activities, as well as strengthening business and consumer confidence, and strong credit growth. The recent Union Budget 2023-24's emphasis on capital expenditure is also expected to encourage private investment and job creation, further boosting demand and raising India's potential growth, as per SBI’ Ecowrap report.

However, the SBI composite leading indicator (CLI) based on monthly data shows declining economic activity from June to December 2022. As a result, the decline in economic activity in Q3 FY23 indicates that GDP may grow in the range of 4.5-4.7 per cent.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised global growth for 2023 upwards by 20 bps to 2.9 per cent in its January 2023 update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO). This revision takes into account positive surprises such as a stronger boost from pent-up demand, a faster fall in inflation, and the likely easing of financial conditions. However, global inflation is expected to ease grudgingly, from 8.8 per cent in 2022 to 6.6 per cent in 2023, due to supply chain boosts in demand.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DP)