The leading economic index (LEI) for India, a key measure of future economic activity, fell by 0.3 per cent in July, bringing the index down to 158.8, according to The Conference Board (TCB). This decline more than reverses the modest 0.1 per cent increase observed in June 2024. The LEI's growth rate over the six-month period from January to July 2024 also slowed significantly, registering just 1.5 per cent growth—half of the 3.2 per cent growth recorded from July 2023 to January 2024.

In contrast, coincident economic index (CEI) for India, which reflects current economic conditions, showed more positive trends. The CEI rose by 1.1 per cent in July 2024, reaching 150.9. This increase partially offsets the 2.4 per cent decline seen in June. Over the six-month period from January to July 2024, the CEI rose by 2.8 per cent, though this is slightly lower than the 3.5 per cent increase recorded in the previous six-month period, as per TCB.

“While still on an overall upward trend, the LEI for India fell slightly in July,” said Ian Hu, economic research associate at TCB. “Bank credit to the commercial sector, alongside merchandise exports, largely drove the decline against stock prices and the real effective exchange rate. Additionally, the six- and twelve-month growth rates of the LEI have softened somewhat in recent months.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DP)