Indian cotton crop estimate for 2020-21 revised down to 356 lakh bales

The CAI has maintained its cotton crop estimate for the Northern Zone at the same level as in its previous month’s estimate i.e. at 65.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each.

For the Central Zone, the cotton crop estimate has been reduced by 1.00 lakh bales to 194 lakh bales of 170 kg each from 195 lakh bales estimated during the last month. The 1.00 lakh reduction in crop estimate is for Gujarat state, while the estimates of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh have been maintained at the same level as in the previous month, CAI said.

The cotton crop estimate for Southern Zone has been reduced by 3.00 lakh bales to 91.50 lakh bales compared to CAI's last month's estimate of 94.50 lakh bales. The cotton crop for Telangana is estimated lower by 3.00 lakh bales based on the pressing data provided by Telangana Cotton Millers & Traders Welfare Association. The cotton crop estimates for the states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have been maintained at the same levels as estimated previously. Also, there is no change in the cotton crop estimate for Orissa.

The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the period from October 2020 to May 2021 is 473.44 lakh bales of 170 kg each. This consists of the arrivals of 340.19 lakh bales of 170 kg each upto May 31, 2021, imports of 8.25 lakh bales upto May 31, 2021 and the opening stock at the beginning of the season on October 1, 2020 at 125 lakh bales.

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2020 to May 2021 at 220 lakh bales, while the export shipment of cotton upto May 31, 2021 is estimated at 58.00 lakh bales.

Stock at the end of May 2021 is estimated by the CAI at 195.44 lakh bales, including 90.00 lakh bales with textile mills and the remaining 105.44 lakh bales with the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc).

The yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI estimates total cotton supply till the end of the cotton season i.e. upto September 30, 2021 at 491 lakh bales, consisting of the opening stock of 125 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season, cotton crop for the season at 356 lakh bales, and imports estimated by the CAI at 10 lakh bales, which are lower by 5.50 lakh bales from the previous year’s import estimated at 15.50 lakh bales.

Domestic consumption for the entire crop year i.e. upto September 30, 2021 is now estimated higher by 10 lakh bales to 325 lakh bales considering the brisk demand for cotton yarn despite disruptions caused by lockdown to arrest spread of the second wave of COVID-19.

The CAI has also increased the exports estimate for the season from its previous estimate of 65 lakh bales to 72 lakh bales based on the feedback received from its exporter members. This export estimate is higher by 22 lakh bales from the previous year’s cotton exports estimate of 50 lakh bales.

The carryover stock at the end of the season i.e. on September 30, 2021 is estimated at 94 lakh bales, CAI said in its May estimate.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RKS)