This surge, fuelled by positive trade dynamics for the United States and developing countries, particularly large ones in Asia, is expected to add approximately $250 billion to goods trade in the first half this year compared to the second half of 2023, UNCTAD said in its Global Trade Update report.

Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts remain at around 3 per cent for this year, with the short-term trade outlook being cautiously optimistic.

If positive trends persist, global trade this year could reach almost $32 trillion, yet it is unlikely to surpass its record level seen in 2022.

Global trade growth in Q1 2024 was primarily driven by increased exports from China (9 per cent), India (7 per cent) and the United States (3 per cent). Conversely, Europe’s exports showed no growth and Africa’s exports decreased by 5 per cent.

Trade in developing countries and South-South trade increased by about 2 per cent in both imports and exports during Q1. In comparison, developed countries saw flat imports and a modest 1 per cent rise in exports.

On an annual basis, however, South-South trade fell by 5 per cent when comparing the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024.

Trade growth varied significantly across sectors, with green energy and artificial intelligence-related products experiencing stronger increases.

Despite these positive trends, the outlook for 2024 is tempered by potential geopolitical issues and industrial policy impacts. Geopolitical tensions, rising shipping costs and emerging industrial policies could reshape global trade patterns, UNCTAD said in a release on the report.

The report cautions that an increasing focus on domestic industries and trade restrictions could hinder international trade growth.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)