UK labour market shows signs of cooling in June 2024

The number of payrolled employees in the UK decreased by 36,000 (0.1 per cent) between March and April 2024. Despite this monthly decline, there was a significant annual increase of 201,000 (0.7 per cent) from April 2023 to April 2024. Preliminary estimates for May 2024 indicate a slight monthly decrease of 3,000 (0.0 per cent) but an annual rise of 167,000 (0.6 per cent), bringing the total number of payrolled employees to 30.3 million.

The UK employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 74.3 per cent for the period from February to April 2024. This figure is below the estimates from a year ago and represents a decrease in the latest quarter. In March 2024, the total workforce jobs (WFJ) in the UK rose by 431,000 on the year to 37.2 million, with increases noted in both employee jobs and self-employment jobs, as per ONS.

The UK unemployment rate for those aged 16 years and over was estimated at 4.4 per cent from February to April 2024, showing an increase compared to estimates from a year ago and a rise in the latest quarter. The economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 years also saw an increase, estimated at 22.3 per cent for the same period, again above estimates from a year ago and higher in the latest quarter.

In the period from March to May 2024, the estimated number of vacancies in the UK decreased by 12,000 on the quarter, bringing the total to 904,000. This marks the 23rd consecutive period of quarterly decline in vacancies, though the number remains above pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels.

Despite the cooling signs in the labour market, earnings growth has remained strong. Annual growth in employees' average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) in Great Britain was 6 per cent for February to April 2024, while total earnings (including bonuses) saw an annual growth of 5.9 per cent.

April 2024 saw an estimated 17,000 working days lost due to labour disputes across the UK, highlighting ongoing challenges within the labour market.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DP)