The expectations index—based on short-term outlook for income, business and labour market conditions—also improved in August to 82.5.

As the expectations index for July was revised up to 81.1, August marked the second consecutive month of the Index above 80. A reading below the threshold of 80 usually signals a recession ahead.

“Overall consumer confidence rose in August but remained within the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M Peterson, chief economist at the US think tank.

“Consumers continued to express mixed feelings in August. Compared to July, they were more positive about business conditions, both current and future, but also more concerned about the labour market. Consumers’ assessments of the current labour situation, while still positive, continued to weaken, and assessments of the labor market going forward were more pessimistic. This likely reflects the recent increase in unemployment. Consumers were also a bit less positive about future income,” she said in a release from the think tank.

“August’s write-in responses also included more mentions of stock prices and unemployment as affecting consumer’s views of the US economy. However, consumers did not change their views about a possible recession: the proportion of consumers predicting a recession was stable and well below the 2023 peak,” Peterson added.

Consumers’ assessments of their family’s current financial situation were less positive, but they were more optimistic for the next six months.

Average 12-month inflation expectations dropped to 4.9 per cent in August—the lowest since March 2020 and consistent with slower overall inflation and declines in some goods prices. Nonetheless, mentions of prices and inflation topped write-in responses.

Meanwhile, the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months dropped for the third month in a row to 46.5 per cent—the lowest since February 2024. The share expecting lower rates increased to 31.5 per cent, the highest since April 2020.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)