The LEI contracted by 2.9 per cent over the six-month period between June and December 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3-per cent contraction over the previous six months, the US-based think tank said in a release.

“The US LEI fell slightly in December, continuing to signal underlying weakness in the US economy,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, business cycle indicators, at the think tank.

“Despite the overall decline, six out of ten leading indicators made positive contributions to the LEI in December. Nonetheless, these improvements were more than offset by weak conditions in manufacturing, the high interest-rate environment and low consumer confidence. As the magnitude of monthly declines has lessened, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates have turned upward but remain negative, continuing to signal the risk of recession ahead,” she added.

The think tank’s coincident economic index (CEI) for the country rose by 0.2 per cent in December 2023 to 111.7, following a 0.2-per cent increase in November. The CEI expanded by 1.1 per cent over the second half last year, up from its 0.8-per cent growth rate over the first half.

The lagging economic index (LAG) declined by 0.2 per cent in December to 118.4, partially reversing an increase of 0.5 per cent in November. This index was up by 0.6 per cent over the six-month period from June to December last year, following no change over the previous six months.

The annual growth rate of the LEI remains deeply negative.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)