US ports face potential record surge in inbound cargo in August: NRF

Monthly inbound cargo volume at major US container ports could see a near-record surge this month as retailers rush to bring in merchandise ahead of a potential strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports this autumn, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“Retailers are concerned by the possibility of a strike at ports on the East and Gulf coasts because contract talks have stalled,” said NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “Many retailers have taken precautions including earlier shipping and shifting cargo to West Coast ports. We hope to see both sides resolve this issue before the current contract expires because retailers and the economy cannot afford to see a prolonged strike. This comes on top of ongoing disruption issues including the attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Vessel diversions have led to increased shipping times and costs and have led to equipment shortages and congestion in Asian ports.”

The contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the US Maritime Alliance, which covers East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, is set to expire on September 30. With negotiations breaking down, the ILA has threatened to strike if a new contract is not reached by then. In response, the NRF has urged both parties to return to the negotiating table. Rising freight rates have also contributed to importers shipping goods earlier than usual.

In June, US ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 2.16 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) – one 20-foot container or its equivalent—marking a 3.6 per cent increase from May and a significant 17.7 per cent increase year-over-year (YoY). This brought the total TEU volume for the first half of 2024 to 12.1 million, a 15 per cent increase over the same period in 2023. These figures include estimates for the ports of New York-New Jersey and Miami, which have not yet reported their TEU counts for June, as per the NRF.

Although July’s numbers have not yet been reported, Global Port Tracker projects that the volume soared to 2.34 million TEU, reflecting a 22.1 per cent increase YoY and reaching the highest level since the record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022. August is also forecast to reach 2.34 million TEU, representing a 19.2 per cent increase YoY.

Looking ahead, September’s volume is forecast at 2.16 million TEU, a 6.5 per cent increase YoY, while October is expected to reach 2.09 million TEU, a 1.7 per cent increase. November’s forecast stands at 1.98 million TEU, up 4.4 per cent, and December is projected at 1.94 million TEU, up 3.5 per cent. If these projections hold, 2024 will see a total of 24.9 million TEU, marking a 12.1 per cent increase from 2023.

These robust import numbers coincide with the NRF’s forecast that 2024 retail sales – excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants to focus on core retail – will grow between 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent over 2023.

“Importers are continuing to grow their inventories and are shifting cargo to the West Coast as a precaution against potential labour disruptions,” said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett. “We calculate that the shift has pushed the West Coast share of cargo we track to above 50 per cent for the first time in over three years.”

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DP)