Recent excessive rainfall has damaged crops in India’s primary cotton-growing regions in the central and southern states. Additionally, cotton acreage has declined across most producing states, primarily due to consistent pest attacks in previous years.

The USDA released its September 2024 WASDE report last Thursday, lowering the production forecast to 30.72 million bales. In the August 2024 report, the projection was 31.36 million bales. For the 2023-24 season, production was estimated at 30.02 million bales, while it was 33.66 million bales in 2022-23. The 2024-25 forecast is down by 0.64 million bales month-on-month and by 2.30 million bales year-on-year.

Projected ending stocks have also been reduced by 0.51 million bales, from 12.89 million bales in the August WASDE report to 12.38 million bales. This represents a decrease of 0.64 million bales from the 13.02 million bales estimated for the 2023-24 season. Ending stocks were 13.85 million bales for the 2022-23 season.

India’s cotton exports are also projected to decline, with a reduction of 0.26 million bales, bringing the new forecast to 1.66 million bales for the season beginning 1 October 2024. In the August report, exports were projected at 1.92 million bales, while current season estimates (October-September) stand at 2.98 million bales, and the previous season’s exports were 1.41 million bales.

On the other hand, the USDA has increased its cotton import forecast for India by 0.38 million bales, bringing the total to 2.94 million bales for the next season. The August 2024 report projected imports at 2.56 million bales. Imports were estimated at 1.13 million bales for 2023-24 and 2.21 million bales for 2022-23.

India’s domestic cotton consumption is expected to remain stable at 32.64 million bales in 2024-25, as per the September 2024 USDA report, the same as projected in August 2024. Cotton consumption was estimated at 32 million bales for 2023-24 and 31.36 million bales for 2022-23.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)