VEPR expects Vietnam's 2024 GDP growth to reach govt target of 7%

The less optimistic one predicts a growth rate of below 7 per cent in Q4 and around 6.84 per cent for the whole year.

VEPR deputy director Nguyen Quoc Viet said in Hanoi recently that by the end of Q3 2024, Vietnam's economy had significantly recovered.

GDP in the first three quarters this year grew to reach 6.82 per cent, 1.5 times higher than the 4.4 per cent recorded during the same period last year, with top contributions from the industrial and service sectors.

The upturn in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) has become the primary driving force for the economy.

The goods trade turnover of $578.5 billion during the first three quarters—a sharp increase of 16.3 per cent YoY, and a trade surplus of $20.8 billion are outstanding achievements during the 2020-2024 period, Viet said.

The state budget revenue exceeded the planned one during the period, while public spending decreased YoY, opening up avenues to continue implementing supporting policies, especially in the context of many industries being affected by Typhoon Yagi, according to domestic media reports.

The central bank continued with its flexible monetary policies.

Significant risks and challenges are still there, VEPR experts feel. Consumer spending has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, while inflationary pressures in the first half of 2024 have somewhat restrained investment growth. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell below 50 points in September.

The number of businesses leaving the market continues to exceed the number entering.

Cost-push inflation makes export competitiveness and the ability to participate deeper in the global value chain face multiple challenges.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)