Vietnam's GDP expands 4.24% YoY in Jan-Sep 2023, better than H1's: UOB

05 Oct '23

2 min read

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Vietnam's economy grew by 4.24 per cent year on year in the first nine months this year—better than the first half's 3.72 per cent, according to UOB, which cut the full-year GDP growth forecast to 5 per cent from 5.2 per cent.
Its 2024 projection stays unchanged at 6 per cent.
Expanding exports and rising industrial output has led to a turnaround in external demand.

Vietnam's economy expanded by 4.24 per cent year on year (YoY) in the first nine months this year—better than the first half’s 3.72 per cent, according to Singapore-based bank UOB. It expanded by 5.33 per cent YoY in the third quarter (Q3), accelerating from 4.05 per cent in the second and 3.28 per cent in the first.

The country’s full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast has been cut by UOB to 5 per cent from the earlier 5.2 per cent—the second downward revision in less than two weeks.

UOB has assumed further acceleration of real GDP growth in Q4 2023 to 7 per cent YoY against the prior forecast of 7.6 per cent.

Though Q4 is the best performing quarter in any year in the country traditionally, the base effect will play a disproportionately large role in 2023 due to the exceptionally strong year in 2022, UOB was quoted as saying by domestic media reports.

The bank’s projection remains unchanged at 6 per cent for 2024.

Expanding exports and rising industrial output has resulted in a turnaround in external demand, UOB pointed out.

The continued inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country is a reason conditions are likely to improve further, it noted.

Vietnam's disbursed FDI rose for the fourth straight month in September this year, with a 2.2 per cent year-to-date gain at $15.9 billion, compared to the 1.3 per cent YoY rise in the January-August period and the 17.2 per cent rise between January and September last year.

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