India's FY25 GDP growth forecast retained by IMF at 7%, 6.5% for FY26

“This is because pent-up demand accumulated during the [COVID-19] pandemic has been exhausted, as the economy reconnects with its potential,” it said in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO).

Emerging Asia’s strong growth is expected to subside, from 5.7 per cent in 2023 to 5 per cent in 2025. This reflects a sustained slowdown in the region’s two largest countries, it noted.

In China, the slowdown is projected to be more gradual. Despite persisting weakness in the real estate sector and low consumer confidence, growth is projected to have slowed only marginally to 4.8 per cent in 2024, largely thanks to better-than-expected net exports.

Compared with that in April, the forecast for China has been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point in 2024 and 0.4 percentage point in 2025. Recent policy measures may provide upside risk to near-term growth.

The IMF slashed its forecast for Bangladesh, projecting a 4.5-per cent growth for FY25. This adjustment marks a significant decrease from its previous estimate of 6.6 per cent made in April and represents the lowest growth rate for Bangladesh in nearly two decades, excluding the pandemic-hit fiscal 2019-20.

Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is projected to pick up from an estimated 2.1 per cent in 2023 to 3.9 per cent in 2025 as the effect on the region of temporary disruptions to oil production and shipping are assumed to fade away.

Compared with that in April, the projection for the region has been revised downward by 0.4 percentage point for 2024, mainly the result of the extension of oil production cuts in Saudi Arabia and ongoing conflict in Sudan taking a large toll.

In sub-Saharan Africa, GDP growth is projected to rise from an estimated 3.6 per cent in 2023 to 4.2 per cent in 2025 as the adverse impacts of prior weather shocks abate and supply constraints gradually ease.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)