The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US dropped by 0.6 per cent in July 2024 to 100.4, marking the latest in a series of declines that suggest ongoing challenges for the US economy. This follows a smaller decline of 0.2 per cent in June 2024. Over the six-month period ending in July 2024, the LEI fell by 2.1 per cent, a modest improvement compared to the sharper 3.1 per cent decline observed between July 2023 and January 2024.

In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which measures current economic conditions, remained flat in July 2024, holding steady at 112.5. This comes after a 0.2 per cent increase in June. The CEI grew by 0.9 per cent during the six months from January to July 2024, showing an accelerated pace compared to its 0.5 per cent growth in the previous six-month period, as per TCB.

The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are key metrics used to assess the state of the economy, particularly in identifying recessions. While most components improved in July, industrial production stood out as a significant drag on the index, posting its largest negative contribution since January 2024.

Meanwhile, the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the US edged down by 0.1 per cent in July 2024 to 119.6, partly offsetting a 0.2 per cent increase in June. The LAG’s growth rate over the six months ending in July 2024 slowed to 0.6 per cent, a decline from the 1.1 per cent growth recorded in the prior six-month period from July 2023 to January 2024.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DP)