US leading economic index falls 0.5% in Sept, down 2.6% since Mar: TCB

The Conference Board coincident economic index (CEI) for the US inched up by 0.1 per cent in September 2024 to 112.9 (2016=100), after a downwardly revised 0.2 per cent increase in August. The CEI increased by 0.9 per cent in the six-month period ending September 2024, higher than its 0.5 per cent growth rate over the previous six-month period, according to a press release by The Conference Board.

The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, and manufacturing and trade sales contributed positively to the index in September and slightly more than offset a decline in industrial production.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the US declined by 0.3 per cent to 118.9 (2016=100) in September 2024, after no change in August. The LAG’s six-month growth rate turned negative, showing a 0.2 per cent contraction over the six-month period ending in September 2024, after a 1.1 per cent increase over the six-month period from March 2023 to September 2024.

“Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists. Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers’ outlook for future business conditions was tepid. Gains among other LEI components were not significant enough to offset weakness among the four gauges mentioned above. Overall, the LEI continued to signal uncertainty for economic activity ahead and is consistent with The Conference Board expectation for moderate growth at the close of 2024 and into early 2025,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)